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Individual Prediction and Crime Trends

Stockholm University, Sweden, henrik.tham{at}criminology.su.se

Hanns von Hofer

Stockholm University, Sweden, hanns.hofer{at}criminology.su.se

A typical solution proposed by both politicians and academics to the problem of crime in society today is individual prediction and early intervention. The question then is how this approach contributes to the central question of how to explain trends in crime. Data used to illustrate this question are drawn mainly from prediction studies, official statistics and level-of-living surveys in Sweden. It is argued that the possibility of predicting or explaining trends in crime by individual data is quite limited. First, the predictive power of individual childhood or teenage properties is too weak to explain total crime or specific types of crime. Second, changes in aggregate measures of conditions during upbringing are not easily compatible with changes in trends in crime. Third, other variables relating to changes in the opportunity structure than changes in the family of upbringing can account for the development of crime trends.

Key Words: Crime Trends • Prediction • Early Intervention • Social Change • Sweden.

European Journal of Criminology, Vol. 6, No. 4, 313-335 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/1477370809104686


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